President Trump is pushing for the Commerce Department to conduct a new census ahead of the next scheduled one in 2030, aiming to avoid counting illegal immigrants and use the results and information gained from the 2024 presidential election. This move adds a new dimension to the fight between Republicans and Democrats, as they aim to gain an upper hand ahead of the midterm elections. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell believes that Trump’s push will be particularly useful as part of the GOP’s message, as many voters are unaware of how redistricting works and that those who are in the country illegally are currently counted for how many votes a state receives in the Electoral College and how many seats it receives in the House.
Experts have raised doubts about the feasibility of Trump’s proposal but believe it could add more enthusiasm to his base and sharpen the GOP’s message. James Thurber, a professor of government at American University, argued that not enough time is left ahead of the midterms to find all the immigrants without legal status and exclude them from census counting. He also pointed to likely legal challenges that the move would face, which would also take time.
Democrats brushed off Trump’s census plan as unrealistic, unconstitutional, and designed to increase pressure on Republican governors to go along with his plan for gerrymandering. Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said the proposal doesn’t “fundamentally” change the debate given Trump’s power in the Republican Party, but Trump is turning to his “classic” playbook.
