Florida, once a blue state, has been turning into a red state since the election of President Trump in November. Democrats in Miami-Dade County have been struggling to rebuild their party after years of neglect following Obama’s win in 2012. Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, credited the state party for an 8 percent increase in Democratic voter turnout from the 2020 election to the 2024 election and for Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava winning reelection by a wide margin even as the county went in the other direction in 2024.
Democrats’ voter affiliation in Florida has declined rapidly since 2020, while Republican affiliation in the state has also increased. Factors contributing to these changes include a massive migration of Republican voters to the state during the COVID-19 pandemic and President Trump’s rise to party stardom. However, some Democrats are not convinced that there has been much movement in their direction, and there is still donor skepticism and donor fatigue about recent cycles in the state.
Democratic strategist Fernand Amandi, based in Miami, believes that if Republicans continue pushing for policies that now have Trump at the lowest approval rating of any president at this point in his second term, Florida voters may say, “Look, it’s time for a change, and the only change now is to give the Democrats a shot at governing.” He also points to the need for Democrats to invest time and money back into Florida if they want to see their party in power once again.
