Security guarantees for Ukraine are emerging as a central component to any deal that might end the long war between Russia and Ukraine. When the war started in 2022, Ukraine had hoped to enter NATO, which would have given it Article 5 assurances under which an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on every member. NATO membership is now on hold, but President Trump’s point person for talks with the Kremlin, Steve Witkoff, has said that the U.S. could participate in “Article 5-like protections” for Ukraine. Trump called it a significant step that Russia had agreed that the U.S. and European countries could provide Ukraine with security guarantees, but he appeared to keep any assurances vague and downplayed the possibility of the guarantees being on par with NATO.
There are various schools of thought on what U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine could or should look like. Some of the main schools of thought include America First ideas, mainstream security ideas, realism and restraint, and isolationists in Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement.
America First ideas involve a centrist approach that would not drain U.S. resources, while mainstream security ideas involve a centrist approach that would not drain U.S. resources. The Quincy Institute bills itself as putting forward policy ideas in Washington that offer “realism and restraint,” with Article 5-like guarantees for Ukraine looking a lot like the support that is already being provided but “with some additional steps.”
