The European Union (EU) and China are set to meet in Beijing for a summit on Wednesday, with the lowest expectations in recent memory. The return of Donald Trump was supposed to bring Europe and China together, but recent tensions have led to new issues between the two sides. Trade friction and China’s support for Russia have resurfaced as flashpoints, dashing any prospect for a feel-good summit. China cancelled the summit’s second day in Hefei, an industrial city in Anhui province where European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has family links.
The only deliverable is a joint statement on climate issues, negotiations for which were fraught but finally concluded overnight on Tuesday. Otherwise, the pickings are slim. The EU and China have headed in the opposite direction to the one many expected early in the year, when von der Leyen talked of “deepening trade and investment ties”, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi backed a European role in Ukraine peace talks.
Beijing’s export controls on rare earth elements have cast a dark shadow over proceedings, adding to European gripes over market access, subsidies, and industrial overcapacity. Brussels is frustrated at Beijing’s failure to offer a structural resolution, such as longer-term licenses for EU firms, which have to be renewed every six months. Another option is a reprieve from licensing requirements for non-military-linked firms, given that these restrictions were intended to punish the United States. Officials say that while Europe may not have been the main target of such rules, Beijing found utility in the extra leverage.
No deal on either front is expected on Thursday. The EU spent the weeks before the summit quietly girding its approach to China, and few in Brussels now expect change from Beijing. The first shoots of this change are visible in two dense policy documents published this month. Top diplomat Kaja Kallas watered down the language of cooperation with China from “partnership” to “engagement,” reflecting a more sober read on Beijing from the EU External Action Service.
