France’s decision to recognize Palestine as a state could potentially shift discussions about the future of the Middle East, even if it doesn’t have an immediate impact on people in Gaza or Israel’s war with Hamas. As the leader of a nuclear-armed, economically and diplomatically powerful country, France is on a tightrope, with divided political reactions in France following his decision.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the shift by one of his country’s closer allies in Europe, stating that such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became. A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Macron’s message is that the hope of a “two-state solution” achieved through diplomacy must not be allowed to die, however unattainable it may seem.
The first impacts are likely not in Gaza but in world capitals where leaders may face pressure or feel emboldened to follow France’s lead. Attention is focusing on other G7 nations, because of their economic and diplomatic sway. France will be the biggest, most populous, and most powerful among those in Europe that have taken this step.
Although more than 140 countries recognize Palestine as a state, France will be the biggest, most populous, and most powerful among those in Europe that have taken this step. The so-called P5 nations are divided on many other issues, so France’s shift isn’t likely to spur radical and rapid change for Palestinians.
U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Macron’s decision on Friday, saying “what he says doesn’t matter. It’s not going to change anything.” France may have better traction with the U.K., as they are drawing closer, most notably in support for Ukraine. If British Prime Minister Keir Starmer follows Macron’s example, Trump could become the odd man out on Palestinian statehood among the security council’s big five powers.
